Independents' Day

Finally this week a well respected non-partisan polling organization told the American people something many of us have been claiming for the last two years or more. Gallup reported that the largest political party in this country is not a party, but those who have run from the parties and will not be associated - - that would be Independents, who now total 40% of the population.

 

For many years the Democrats held a significant registration edge; often as much as 10% over the Republicans and Independents of all stripes did not break double digits. This began to change with the Perot challenges a few years back, but settled back for a while as the two major parties found new and creative ways to buy votes from the public with their own money.

 

Actual registrations in some states may not reflect what Gallup and other polls are showing, as those who consider themselves Independent of the political parties may stay registered  to one so they can vote in the primary elections in states where they are restricted.  Pennsylvania is one such state, and although it has a 1 million registration advantage for the Democrats, that figure does not match with voter sentiment on Election Day.  Today voters are much more likely to vote the individual and the issues of the moment. The last two elections at the national level certainly proved that.

 

Handicapping elections is no longer the back-room science it once was. A more informed electorate has grown along with the level of education in this country since 1946, and while some claim they don’t pay enough attention, it seems they must have been attentive enough to know what they don’t want, and that is what our two party system has been delivering in recent years.

 

While there are Independents of several stripes as representatives of minor parties that have been around for years, the biggest jump in numbers has been in the last three years and it is no secret these are the Tea Party types.  Clearly this group of reactionaries to questionable fiscal policy caught everyone off guard and no one questions their impact on changing the complexion of the House of Representatives in the last election.  However, what folks should question is whether they are a wing of the Republican Party as it shakes out today.  These Independent types voted for Republicans as they were often the only option, but their limited level of tolerance for inaction means no party or elected official can count on them next time around.

 

Serious scholars of the 2008 Presidential election agree that it was not minorities, students or “the young” that elected President Obama, but Independents in general who wanted a change on many levels.  From their standpoint they took a chance, but were not all that satisfied two years later and sent a message.  Statistics at the state and local levels indicates their momentum has not slacked off but they have turned to influencing elections from school boards on up.  They are now woven deeply in society and are definitely in that group of “most likely voters” that we hear mentioned from those who keep the tally.

 

Some Republicans would like to think they can count on Independents and Tea Party types, but that is not likely if the economic and financial stability of this country continues on its current downward spiral. Democrats from the highest levels try to spin them as ignorant and dangerous; using all manner of negative tactics, analogies and name calling, but most know they are among the most orderly and structured protest movements this country has ever experienced.

 

Regardless of what the Independents may call themselves they are a larger force to be reckoned with than at any time since 1860.  That was the last time the nation was fractured to the degree that a movement (Abolition) was so strong that huge numbers of both parties left in such large numbers that they elected a president that was not from either one.  To this day most consider Lincoln’s election the most important in our history.

 

The winds of political change are howling across the country now in a manner not seen since those days, and I would not be surprised to see that 40% number grow another 5% by November, and to see some in office change party to Independent during the same period. After all, most of them have their fingers in that wind all the time.

Jim Foster

Editor